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By Christine de la Maisonneuve & Joaquim Oliveira Martins

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Extra resources for A PROJECTION METHOD FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE EXPENDITURES ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS No. 1048

Sample text

The authors find that GDP has a positive and statistically significant effect on health but obtain mixed results concerning the income elasticity by country. For the panel as a whole the income elasticity is around one. Based on real expenditure deflated by the health deflator, GDP and health spending are found to be non-stationary and co-integrated with and without a trend. For the panel as a whole the elasticity of health with respect to GDP is less than one. The fact that the coefficients on GDP have changed when the GDP deflator is replaced by an health price index casts doubt on the reliability of the results using the GDP deflator.

For the panel as a whole the income elasticity is around one. Based on real expenditure deflated by the health deflator, GDP and health spending are found to be non-stationary and co-integrated with and without a trend. For the panel as a whole the elasticity of health with respect to GDP is less than one. The fact that the coefficients on GDP have changed when the GDP deflator is replaced by an health price index casts doubt on the reliability of the results using the GDP deflator. The authors conclude that there is no support for the proposition that health care is a luxury.

5% in the starting period to about 10% and above 5% in 2060 in the cost-pressure and the cost-containment scenario respectively. 1. 0 OECD BRIICS 60. 2). In the cost-containment scenario, one group of countries experiences a 4 to 5 percentage point increase in total spending to GDP ratios over the period 2010-2060. It includes countries that are ageing very rapidly (Korea and Chile), as well as those with currently low labour participation, which may face a substantial increase in the demand for formal long-term care (Spain and Mexico).

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A PROJECTION METHOD FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE EXPENDITURES ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS No. 1048 by Christine de la Maisonneuve & Joaquim Oliveira Martins


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